Thesis Abstract of AGS Students

Johan Iskandar (1991)

This study evaluates the sustainability of shifting cultivation system of the Baduy society in West Java, Indonesia by using system modeling. The constructed model structures food availability as dependent on land use and soil fertility changes which come about by population growth. Popula- tion, on the other hand, is determined by birth, death, in-migration, and out-migration rates, which vary according to food supply in the Baduy area.

Using 1985/1986 data, base-run simulation shows that Baduy population increases rapidly over time. After 27 years, however, population decreases, because the food supply is not adequate. The simulation results indicate that the Baduy society actually collapses in 50 years as the population

approaches zero. Upland rice (ladang) area, monogarden, secondary forest (reuma) in different fallow time decrease over time, while mixed-garden and man-made forest and settlement areas increase over time. Food surplus declines after 20 years. Output per hectare declines about 10 per cent in every 4 years.

On the other hand, alternative runs suggest that shifting cultivation in Baduy area can longer sustain sufficient food supply to its population and can better sustain forest areas given a restricted rate of population growth among traditional farming population and/or improvement in practices. For example, by reducing population birth rate from 3.7 percent to 2.0 per cent per annum and improving soil fertility additionally 6 per cent during first year fallow (1.31 increment factor compared to 1.25) while other factors assumed constant, the results of simulation show that food supply increases and Baduy society persists after 50 years.

As long as soil fertility can be managed i.e. main-tained or improved over time, food supply would be ensured. In base and alternative runs, it is shown that off-farm employment and income from non-Baduy area are significant sources of income when the population has inadequate agricultural production within their own territory.

This study points to the importance of a population's ability to adapt technologies and practices in order to sustain its society as well as of alternative income sources when population pressure and competition for land is high.

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